The same card at three different grades is three different assets. They move at different speeds, for different reasons, with different buyers. Understanding that is the difference between tracking your collection accurately and tracking a fiction.
This post explains how RAW, PSA 10, and BGS 9 prices actually behave on the open market in 2026, why the premium between grades is not a fixed multiplier, and how to use grade-specific last-sold pricing to avoid the most expensive mistakes collectors make.
The three markets, briefly defined
- RAW (ungraded): the largest market by volume. Buyers are typically collectors, casual investors, or graders-in-waiting. Condition matters but is self-reported; trust depends on seller reputation.
- PSA 10 (Gem Mint): a certified top-grade market. Buyers are serious collectors or investors. Supply is capped by the PSA pop report. Listings dry up quickly in demand spikes.
- BGS 9 (Mint): a certified high-grade market with its own pop report and a different collector base. BGS slabs appeal to collectors who value the aesthetic of the slab as much as the grade.
All three trade as separate instruments. Flipzi prices each one as its own last-sold series on Cardmarket, TCGplayer, and eBay so you can see the actual divergence instead of a misleading blended average.
Why the PSA 10 premium is not a fixed multiplier
Collectors often ask "what is the PSA 10 premium for this card?" as if it were a constant. It is not. The premium is driven by three independent variables:
1. Pop report (supply)
PSA publishes a population report for each card and grade. A card with 45 PSA 10s trades very differently from the same card with 12,000 PSA 10s. When pop is low and demand is active, PSA 10 premiums balloon. When pop saturates, the premium compresses.
2. Cultural demand (demand)
Charizard, Blue-Eyes White Dragon, Black Lotus, Mickey Mouse — iconic cards have elastic demand. Everyone wants them; when PSA 10s are scarce, collectors pay sharp premiums. Obscure cards have inelastic demand; PSA 10 may trade at 2x RAW regardless of pop.
3. Grading risk (cost of supply)
Not every RAW card is a PSA 10 candidate. The probability of achieving PSA 10 depends on edge quality, centering, surface, and corners. High-risk cards (hard to get PSA 10) carry higher premiums because the downside on a PSA 9 is severe. Low-risk cards (easy PSA 10) trade at tighter spreads.
This is why two cards from the same set can show a PSA 10 premium of 2x and 12x over RAW respectively. If your tracker uses an average grade premium, both of those cards are priced wrong.
How BGS 9 fits into the picture
BGS 9 is not a substitute for PSA 9. They are different markets with different buyers. BGS tends to be preferred for:
- Vintage cards where BGS's thicker slab is the preference aesthetic.
- High-value modern cards where a BGS pristine 10 (black label) commands vintage-Charizard-level premiums.
- Cross-collectible collectors who hold cards, comics, and coins — BGS overlaps with CGC cultural appeal.
For most modern TCG cards on Cardmarket and TCGplayer, BGS 9 trades below PSA 9. For some vintage, BGS 9.5 trades above PSA 10. The only way to know is per-card per-grade last-sold data.
A worked example: same card, three grades
Take a popular modern Pokemon alt-art rare with ~30 EUR RAW price:
- RAW: €30 last-sold on Cardmarket, decent volume.
- PSA 9: €75 — 2.5x premium. PSA 9s sell frequently; volume is healthy.
- PSA 10: €240 — 8x over RAW, 3.2x over PSA 9. Low pop, high demand.
- CGC 9: €55 — below PSA 9 in this market segment due to grading-brand preference.
- BGS 9: €70 — roughly pairs with PSA 9 but at slightly lower volume.
Now the RAW has a hot week: a new set is announced and collectors chase the alt art. RAW jumps to €45 (+50%). What happens to the graded tiers?
- PSA 10 usually overreacts upward: scarcity kicks in and the PSA 10 price could run to €340-380 (+40-60%). The multiplier on RAW grows.
- PSA 9 typically moves less than RAW in percentage terms: more supply, easier to find, ends at €95 (+25%).
- BGS 9 lags: thinner market, slower repricing. Stays near €75 for a few days, then catches up partially.
- CGC 9 often barely moves: different collector base, less correlated with the PSA-driven demand.
If your tracker averages these into one "graded" price, you see a +30% move when reality is +60% on one tier and +5% on another. You buy or sell at the wrong grade, and the difference between the two is real money.
How to use grade-specific data without getting fooled
Rule 1: Always set price alerts on the specific grade you own
A PSA 10 alert should fire on PSA 10 moves, not on a blended average. Flipzi's price alert system respects grade boundaries end-to-end. The same logic applies when you are hunting for a buy: alert the exact grade you plan to purchase.
Rule 2: Check volume before trusting a price
A single sale of a PSA 10 is noise. Three sales in seven days at similar prices is signal. Before buying or selling, check how recently the last-sold was and whether multiple transactions corroborate it. Flipzi excludes stale data (older than 14 days on graded tiers) rather than showing you a frozen price pretending to be current.
Rule 3: Do not assume a grade premium is permanent
Grade premiums shift over time as pop reports grow. A PSA 10 Charizard from 2020 pop 500 is different from the same card in 2026 pop 4,500. Flipzi's price history shows the premium evolving; use that, not a historical snapshot, to judge current market.
Rule 4: Do not let AI guess your grade
Third-party AI grading tools are all over the internet in 2026. Flipzi refuses to use them. A wrong predicted grade can cost a real collector hundreds of euros per slab, and the brand promise of Flipzi is truth about your collection — not speculation. The grade you enter must come from PSA, BGS, or CGC themselves.
Implication for buying, selling, and holding
Buying
Identify the grade-specific last-sold, not a blended estimate. Buy below recent last-sold if possible, and verify with multiple transactions. If the market is illiquid (fewer than 3 sales in 14 days), treat the last-sold as a rough anchor, not a hard price.
Selling
Price at recent last-sold minus a small discount if you want fast movement, or at recent last-sold flat if you can wait. Do not price against the listing average — that is what everyone else failed to sell at. If your grade has fewer than 3 recent sales, be patient; a thin market needs time.
Holding
Portfolio value is not one number. It is a vector of grade-specific prices. Flipzi's portfolio tracker shows P&L per grade per card so you understand where the value actually lives. When one grade runs while others are flat, you know exactly which slab is contributing — and whether the run is broad (likely to continue) or narrow (likely to reverse).